New Modeling Forecasts Lockdowns In 2022

New modelling from the University of Melbourne suggests that even with 80% of the adult population vaccinated, we may still need to endure long lockdowns. They estimate that people will need to be in lockdown 58% of the year to keep deaths below 1000 a year and infections below 320 a day.

However, the researchers found that some measures could significantly reduce the time spent in lockdowns. Vaccinated children over the age of 5, continuing to work from home, maintaining hospitality density limits, high levels of mask wearing and preventing unvaccinated people from gathering together could all significantly reduce lockdowns, as well as cases and deaths. Rapid antigen testing will also prove useful.

According to this new model, lockdowns would likely not be needed at all if 90% of adults AND children were vaccinated, and Stage 2 restrictions were maintained.